The Lindy Effect - The longer something has survived, the longer it will likely continue
When evaluating lasting value of ideas or institutions
What Does “The Lindy Effect - The longer something has survived, the longer it will likely continue” Mean?
Things that have lasted long will likely last longer. Time tests and eliminates weak ideas. What survives demonstrates robustness. Age predicts future survival.
Origin and History
The name comes from Lindy's delicatessen in New York, where comedians were said to gossip about how long shows would last; writer Albert Goldman described the idea in 1964. Mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot formalized it, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized it in Antifragile (2012), applying it to non-perishable things such as books, ideas and technologies.
What Happens When You Break It
Assuming new things will last longer leads to wasted investment in fads, missing proven durable ideas, and chasing novelty over substance.
Benefits of Following This Rule
Recognizing Lindy effect identifies lasting value, avoids fads, invests in proven ideas, and understands that survival predicts future survival.